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Long-term carbon offsets outlook 2023

BloombergNEF

Published: July 18th, 2023

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A turbulent year hasn’t thrown off the long-term prospects for the carbon offset market, which could be valued at half a trillion dollars annually by 2050. Demand will rise into the billions of tons of carbon dioxide equivalent within the next decade as companies work toward net-zero goals. Supply could increase nearly 60-fold depending on how carbon removal and nature-based solutions scale. If all offset types are allowed, the market will be oversupplied and prices will average just $18/ton out to 2050. Conversely, a removal-only market would increase this average to a massive $127/ton. A third scenario could see the market splitting in two, keeping prices reasonable but failing to direct investment to technology-based removal and the most impactful avoidance projects.


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